Executive seminar on Demography, Inequality and Inflation
Charles Goodhart | London School of Economics
Manoj Pradhan | Talking Heads Macro
Chair and Moderator:
Thorsten Beck | Florence School of Banking and Finance
The rise of China and global demography created a ‘sweet spot’ that has dictated the path of inflation, interest rates, and inequality over the last three decades. However, we are at a point of inflexion, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As that sweet spot turns sour, the multi-decade trends that demography brought about are set for a dramatic reversal.
Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan‘s new book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival, (2020), discusses the implications of this at length. Many of their conclusions are controversial. Neither financial markets nor policymakers are prepared for a significant rise in inflation and wages, or a rise in nominal interest rates. Our other predictions are more benign – productivity will rise and labour will reclaim a greater share of national output, reducing the inequality that has led to so much social and political upheaval. Of one thing we are sure: the future will be nothing like the past.
Charles Goodhart was appointed to the Norman Sosnow Chair of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1985, until his retirement in 2002 when he became Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1990, and awarded the CBE in 1997, for services to monetary economics. During 1986, he helped to found the Financial Markets Group at LSE. For the previous 17 years he served as a monetary economist at the Bank of England, becoming a Chief Adviser in 1980. Following his advice on overcoming the financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1983, he subsequently served on the HK Exchange Fund Advisory Committee until 1997. Later in 1997 he was appointed for three years, until May 2000, one of the four independent outside members of the newly-formed Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. He became an economic consultant to Morgan Stanley in 2009, until he resigned, at the age of 80, in 2016. It was during this period that he began work on the subject matter of his recent book, The Great Demographic Reversal (Palgrave Macmillan), with his colleague there, Manoj Pradhan. He was written widely on matters relating to monetary policy, especially central banking, and macro-economics. Charles is the author of Goodhart’s Law “that any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.”
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, an independent research firm and co-author of the bestseller “The Great Demographic Reversal”. Manoj was most recently Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the Global Economics team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of George Washington University and the State University of New York. Manoj works on thematic global macroeconomics, with a focus on emerging markets. He has a PhD in economics from George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School.