The rise of China and global demography created a ‘sweet spot’ that has dictated the path of inflation, interest rates, and inequality over the last three decades. However, we are at a point of inflexion, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As that sweet spot turns sour, the multi-decade trends that demography brought about are set for a dramatic reversal.

Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan‘s new book, ‘The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival’, (2020), discusses the implications of this at length. Many of their conclusions are controversial. Neither financial markets nor policymakers are prepared for a significant rise in inflation and wages, or a rise in nominal interest rates. Our other predictions are more benign – productivity will rise and labour will reclaim a greater share of national output, reducing the inequality that has led to so much social and political upheaval. Of one thing we are sure: the future will be nothing like the past.

TThe second event of the #FBFDiscuss! series will develop around the motion: “This House Believes that central banks should introduce central bank digital currencies.” With the proponent Domenico Lombardi, Economist and Public Policy Expert, Stephen Cecchetti, Rosen Family Chair in International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School. Moderated by Christy Ann Petit, Research Associate, Florence School of Banking and Finance

The first event of the #FBFDiscuss! series developed around the motion: “This house believes that the ECB should include climate change mitigation within its mandate.” With the proponent Dirk Schoenmaker, Professor of Banking and Finance at the Rotterdam School of Management and the opponent, Hans-Peter Gruener, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Mannheim. Moderated by Christy Ann Petit, Research Associate, Florence School of Banking and Finance

Commissioner Mairead McGuiness will offer a keynote address on the occasion of the FBF Annual Lecture. This lecture represents the kick-off event of a new lecture series “Women in Finance” which aims to highlight successful women across different areas of finance, public service, academia, and private sector.
Chaired by Elena Carletti, Professor of Finance at Bocconi University and founding director of the Florence School of Banking and Finance at the European University Institute.

In this online seminar chaired by Thorsten Beck (The Business School (formerly Cass) and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute), Axel Weber (Chairman, UBS), Belén Romana (Non Executive Director, Santander, Aviva and SIX Group.) and Luiz Pereira da Silva (Deputy General Manager, Bank for International Settlements) discussed the challenges and opportunities in integrating sustainability concerns in operational activities and strategies for banks, central banks, and investors.

In this online seminar chaired by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University), Andreas Dombret (Columbia University, former Member of the Board of Deutsche Bundesbank); Dominique Laboureix (French Prudential Supervisory Authority – Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution – ACPR), and Luigi de Vecchi (Chairman EMEA Banking – Capital Markets & Advisory Citi) discussed the opportunities and risks of the consolidation that has often been described as a critical instrument to address the woes of Europe’s banking sector.

In this online seminar Chaired by Thorsten Beck (The Business School (formerly Cass) and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute) Helmut Kraemer-Eis (Chief Economist, European Investment Fund) and Sophie Manigart (Professor, Vlerick Business School) highlighted how private markets in general and private equity in particular – are increasingly becoming key solutions to financing SMEs across almost all sectors and discussed the current market sentiment in private equity in Europe.

In this online seminar chaired by Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School and FBF, EUI), Vitor Constâncio ( Lisbon School of Economics & Management, former Vice President European Central Bank), Julie B. Galbo (Board Member, DNB Bank ASA) and Thomas Vlassopoulos (Head of Monetary Analysis Division, European Central Bank) have examined the effects of low interest rates on bank profitability and risk appetite and what are the main drivers of the current low-for-long interest rates that bank board members should pay attention to.

In this debate chaired by Thorsten Beck (Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute and Cass Business School), Gianfranco Gianfrate (EDHEC Business School)and Justine Leigh-Bell (Climate Bonds Initiative) chaired by Thorsten Beck (Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute and Cass Business School) discussed how green are green bonds really and how could trust in the green bond market place be increased and sustained?

In this online seminar chaired by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University) Edouard Fernandez-Bollo (Member of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank), Hans-Helmut Kotz, (non-executive Member of the Board of Caixa Geral de Depósitos, Lisbon and Resident Fellow at Harvard) and Laragh Cassar, APS Bank Malta discussed how effective is the FAP framework to ensure sound governance, adequate risk-taking, and accountability of the management body towards the Board

This online debate focused on the risks and benefits of Fintech and Big Tech credit from the European perspective. The debate has been chaired and moderated by Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute) and featured as speakers Jon Frost (Bank for International Settlements), Philippe Paech (London School of Economics) and Loriana Pelizzon (SAFE/Goethe University).

In this online debate James H. Freis, Jr. (Former CEO, Wirecard) reflected upon broader Wirecard lessons for Boards and Banks in having an efficient corporate governance framework with effective control functions. He discussed financial reporting and auditing deficiencies and inefficiencies, legal and procedural impediments in supervising and enforcing financial information Finally alternatives for the overall supervisory system (from whistleblowing mechanisms to the supervisory architecture in Europe) have been considered.

This second online seminar takes place in the framework of the Challenges for Bank Board Members series, which aims at building a community of professionals from the banking and finance industry interested in deepening their knowledge about bank boards’ functioning and learning how to challenge bank management effectively.

In this online debate Elizabeth McCaul (Supervisory Board member, European Central Bank) and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (Chairman, Société Générale) identified current supervisory expectations towards bank boards in ensuring banks’ good governance and resilience, and explored targeted SSM supervisory measures and SREP requirements to strengthen corporate governance. The debate also focused on the bank boards’ involvement in challenging the bank’s executives, the segregation of bank board oversight and management and finally considered the implications of COVID-19 on supervisory expectations and bank boards. This Online Seminar launched the Challenges for Bank Board Members series in the framework of new FBF Bank Board Academy for Non-Executive Directors.

The interdisciplinary Academic Event on ‘Bank resolution in times of COVID-19’, jointly organised by the Single Resolution Board and the Florence School of Banking and Finance (European University Institute), took place on Friday, 27 November 2020 as an online event. Papers from different disciplines were presented and discussed by high-level academics and policymakers.

The online debate discussed the future of Securitisation in Europe in the light of COVID-19 pandemics and recent regulatory changes. The debate was chaired and moderated by Jean-Jacques van Helten (EUI FBF),and featured as speakers Patrizia Canziani (Financial Advisor), Bertrand Chavasse (BNP Paribas), Bart Joosen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU Amsterdam) and Pablo Portugal (AFME (Association for Financial Markets in Europe).

The purpose of this online debate is to review the lessons learned from the previous financial crisis, explore the suite of possible solutions and discuss how to better prepare for handling new NPL surges in the future. The seminar was chaired and moderated by Elena Carletti(Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute)and featured as speakers Nicoletta Mascher (European Stability Mechanism); Charles-Antoine Dozin (Morgan Stanley) and Nicolas Véron (Peterson Institute for International Economics and Bruegel)

In this seminar chaired by Prof. Thorsten V. Koeppl (Queen’s University), Prof. Ron Berndsen (Tilburg University and LCH) and Dr. Marc Peters (European Commission) provided state-of-the-art insights on the mechanics, tools and policy questions that relate to the recovery and resolution of CCPs. The on-line seminar focused on the role and importance of CCPs for financial markets by illustrating the type and magnitude of events that could lead to a resolution situation. It also highlighted the continuum between supervision and resolution but also the tension between the respective standards for CCPs and banks. Finally resolution triggers have been presented and the notion of public interest discussed.

Gabriel Bernardino, EIOPA Chairman, reviews the measures that were put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic and how the regulatory frameworks to ensure the stability of the sectors fared in withstanding the shock. The following discussion, with Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam) and Giuseppe Corvino (Bocconi University), moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance) focused on the broader lessons to consider, including protection gaps and the case for pandemic insurance; what the accelerated take up of digital technology by consumers means for business models and communication; and, most importantly, the role of the insurance and pensions in underpinning Europe’s recovery.

Edouard Fernandez-Bollo (Member of the ECB Supervisory Board) outlines the content of its draft guide on its supervisory approach to consolidation of the banking sector in the EU, focused on three key prudential aspect: the setting of capital requirements and guidance, the treatment of badwill, and the use of internal models by the newly consolidated entities. The presentation is followed by a debate with Diego De Giorgi (Independent Director, Unicredit; former Global Head of Global Investment Banking, Bank of America Merril Lynch) and Andreas Dombret (Columbia University, former Member of the Board of Deutsche Bundesbank), chaired by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University, FBF and CEPR).

Mario Quagliariello (European Banking Authority) provides selected findings on the state of health of the EU banking sector during in the first phase of the crisis and reviewed what preliminary assessments tell us about banks’ resilience. Then, Véronique Ormezzano (BNP Paribas), Til Schuermann (Oliver Wyman) and Nicolas Véron (PIIE and Bruegel) shared their perspectives on the current state of the banking sector and the challenges ahead, discussing also merits and limits of different diagnostic tools, such as stress testing. The debate is chaired by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance, EUI).

Francesco Mazzaferro (ESRB) outlines the ESRB Recommendation to achieve a uniform approach to restraints on pay-outs across the EU, in the light of the impact of COVID19. The debate that followed, chaired by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University, FBF and CEPR) discussed the merits of the recommendation in terms of macro-prudential arguments and its impact on the financial system, featuring Jan-Pieter Krahnen (Goethe University, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and CEPR), Viral V. Acharya (NYU Stern School of Business and CEPR) and Sylvie Mathérat (Independent member of the EU commission High Level Forum on Capital Market Union).

In this event, Jörg Kukies (State Secretary, German Ministry of Finance) and Odile Renaud-Basso (Director General of the French Treasury) introduced and discussed the unprecedented French-German proposal of a grants-based Recovery Plan funded by a European Union borrowing capacity entrusted to the European Commission. The discussion, moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and European University Institute), discussed several crucial aspects of the agreement.

Isabel Schnabel (Member of the ECB’s Executive Board) review in this seminar the ECB’s policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic explaining the economic rationale for the ECB’s crisis-related monetary policy measures – including the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), targeted and non-targeted liquidity operations, as well as recent changes to the ECB’s collateral framework. Her remarks are followed by a panel discussion with Jean-Pierre Mustier (President of the European Banking Federation, CEO Unicredit) and Patrick Honohan (formerly Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland), moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and European University Institute).

In this online seminar, Stephen Hynes and Gwenael Pover (ESMA) take stock of the current regulation and supervision of Credit Rating Agencies in the European Union and assesses the impact of recent or future downgrades on issuers and markets. In the following discussion, moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance), Colin Ellis (Moody’s) and Richard Portes (London Business School) engage with the speakers in discussing the learned from the supervision of CRAs during the past euro crisis for the current COVID-19 crisis.

In this online debate held on 28 May 2020, Edouard Fernandez-Bollo (ECB Supervisory Board), Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School), Til Schuerman (Oliver Wyman) together with Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute) discussed the role of banking sector in the mitigation of the adverse economic effects of the current COVID-19 pandemic. In the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted measures in its supervisory competence to ensure banks fulfil their lending role to households and businesses. This online seminar examined those supervisory measures and discussed the implications of temporary measures for supervisors and banks.

An initiative of the EUI Pierre Werner Chair, jointly organised with the Florence School of Banking and Finance and the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Chair. Marco Buti (Head of Cabinet of the Commissioner for the Economy, European Commission) Luis Garicano (Member of the European Parliament and Professor of Economics and Innovation, IE Business School – on leave), Ramon Marimon (Pierre Werner Chair) Jean Pisani-Ferry (Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa Chair) discuss the most relevant European needs and organisational forms, that a recovery plan or recovery fund should convey, in the light of the European Parliament initiatives and the – soon to be known – European Commission Recovery Plan.

Gilles Mourre (DG ECFIN, European Commission), Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam) and Grégory Claeys (Bruegel) discuss the rationale and potential limitations of SURE, a new European Union instrument for temporary ‘Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency’, recently proposed by the Commission, in an online debate moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute).

In this joint EUI-Oliver Wyman Forum online debate, Christian Ossig (Association of German Banks), José María Roldán (Spanish Banking Association), Frédéric Visnovsky (Banque de France and ACPR) assess the impact of the wide-spread lockdowns that followed the outbreak of COVID-19 on real economies, particularly on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) which struggle to bridge their profit shorfalls. The debate is introduced by James Bryan (Oliver Wyman) and moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and FBF).

Vitor Constâncio (Lisbon School of Economics and Management); Clemens Fuest (ifo Institute, University of Munich); Jean Pisani-Ferry (European University Institute and SciencesPo) and Guido Tabellini (Bocconi University) discuss the extraordinary and unprecedented fiscal measures to support their economies and to combat the ravaging effects of COVID-19, in an online debate moderated by Elena Carletti (Bocconi University and Florence School of Banking and Finance, European University Institute).

Ramona Ianus (DG Competition, European Commission) illustrates the main characteristics of the Temporary Framework for State Aid in the context of COVID-19, which enables EU Member States to ensure that sufficient liquidity remains available to businesses of all types and to preserve the continuity of economic activity during and after the virus outbreak.

Luca Enriques (University of Oxford) and Georg Ringe (University of Hamburg) make the case for a “mentorship regime”, which provides for a reliable regulatory framework for partnership agreements between fintech firms and established banks. This may show the way to a new and more reliable future system of banking that puts the well-established contractual practice of outsourcing banking services on a more reliable basis. The presentation is followed by comments by Anna Maria Nowak (EUI).

Christos Gortsos (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens) and Vítor Constâncio (former Vice-President of the European Central Bank) discuss the provision of central bank credit in the form of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) to solvent credit institutions, higlighting the role of the different actors in the process, the specific conditions of this provision, an when and how ELA provision can interfere with the objectives and tasks for the Eurosystem.

Bart Joosen (VU University Amsterdam and Recofise), Simon Broxham (Duver Consulting) and Richard Hopkin (AFME) discuss securitisation in Europe, starting from the history and the current regulatory scenario, to the securitisation market, recent trends and future evolutions.

Peter Alldridge (Drapers’ Professor of Law at Queen Mary University of London) reflects on the significance of three steps which, in hindsight, were decisive in the growth of the anti-money laundering industry. Nikita Divissenko (EUI) higlights the impact of AML practices on business operations and financial regulation.

Daniel Gros (Director of CEPS) argues that, despite the low or negative interest rates, the effective cost of public debt higher than these rates would suggest. Then, he analyses the ECB’s sovereign bond purchase program, illustrating how monetary and fiscal policy mingle in this scenario.

Christian Winkler (ESMA – European Securities and Markets Authority), provides an overview of the framework used by ESMA for fund stress simulations, outlining the different building blocks of a stress simulation framework, along with a menu of options that can be selected by stress testers.

Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin and Peterson Institute for International Economics), George Papaconstantinou (School of Transnational Governance, EUI) and Maria Ana Barata (Department of Law, EUI) look back critically at the role of the ECB in managing the euro area crisis, pointing out to the key learnings that could shape the future of central banking.

Jón Daníelsson, Director of the Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics, discusses the changes brought by Artificial intelligence on the financial sector and the roles of risk managers and microprudential authorities, highlighting its benefits in terms of cost saving and efficiency increase, as well as its drawbacks in terms of the emergence of new disruptive risks.

Andrew Metrick (Yale School of Management) and Loriana Pelizzon (SAFE Goethe University Frankfurt and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) discuss the latest research efforts undertaken in academia to identify the methodologies and tools that will be used to contrast future financial crises.

Shabdeep Mann and Tom Fish (PwC) and outline the emerging technologies that have the potential to transform banks and the industry; the impact this will have on the business model and operating model of banks; the impact on the industry ecosystem including regulators; and key considerations for banks and regulators to prepare for these impacts.