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Credit and the Macroeconomy: Leverage Cycles, Asset Prices and Crisis



To request inclusion in the waiting list, please contact fbf@eui.eu

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  • General description

    This course will consider the role of leverage and asset prices for macroeconomic outcomes. It will first discuss stylized facts about leverage cycles, credit growth, interest rates and asset prices over the long-run, before moving on to studying financial crises.

    In particular, it will focus on how different economic indicators perform in crisis prediction models, and ask what role bank capital ratio and liquidity ratios play for financial stability.

    In the last part of the course the effectiveness of macro-prudential and monetary policy in taming credit cycles will be discussed, followed by an assessment of how such policies affect the real economy.

  • Topics covered

    • Financial cycles and the economy;
    • Interest rates and returns on capital;
    • Financial crisis prediction: tools and accuracy;
    • Bank capital and financial stability;
    • Debt overhang and recovery from crises;
    • Managing credit booms: macroprudential vs. monetary policy

  • How the course will work

    Total course length: 12 hours.

    The last part of the course will consist of a “hands-on” exercise, during which participants use STATA to estimate crisis prediction models, and to study the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies using the local projection method.

    A certificate of attendance will be provided to all participants after the course.

  • Meet the instructor

    Moritz Schularick is Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Bonn and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and the CESifo Research Network. In 2015-16, he held the Alfred-Grosser-Chair at SciencesPo in Paris. Previously, he taught at the Free University of Berlin and was a visiting professor at New York University and the University of Cambridge. Working at the intersection of macroeconomics, international economics and economic history, his research has been published in several journals, among others the American Economic Review and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He is a Research Fellow of CEPR and CESifo, a Schumpeter-Fellow of VolkswagenStiftung and an alumnus of the German Young Academy.

  • Prerequisites

    Degree in Economics. Knowledge of empirical techniques and basic knowledge of STATA are required to follow the course

    Technical Prerequisites

    Participant are required to bring their own laptops with STATA installed.

  • Fees

    1750€ – Public Authorities (e.g. National Competent Authorities, Central Banks) and European Institutions

    1900€ – Private Sector

    1000€ – Academics (Assistant, Associate or Full Professors)

    850€ – Students (with certificate of studies)

    The course fee covers coffee and lunch breaks. Travel and hotel costs are not included.


    Participants who register before 20 December 2018 will benefit from a 10% reduction of the course fees.

    The early bird discount cannot be combined with group deals.


    • In case of registration of 3 participants from the same organisation, the course fee is waived for one of them.
      To benefit from the deal, the names of the 3 participants have to be communicated to fbf@eui.eu before registering. We cannot communicate the names of other registered people from the same institution (it is upon your responsibility to get in touch with your HR division). A single debit note will be issued for the 3 participants followed by one payment.
    • Special deals apply for larger groups.


    • In case a course is cancelled, registered participants will receive the full refund.
    • In case a course is moved to another date, registered participants may request a voucher to attend another FBF course.
    • Registered participants who have not yet paid the registration fee can cancel their participation until one month before the start of the course.
    • The registration fee is non-refundable, however it will be possible to transfer registration to another person or request a voucher for another FBF course up to 20 days before the start date of the course.

    For more details, please contact fbf@eui.eu
  • Practical information


    Please notice that the course dinner, and most of the social activities, will take place downtown.

    Recommended hotels nearby the EUI:

    Recommended hotels in downtown Florence:

    Suggested restaurants in Florence city centre


    On arrival, participants will be provided with temporary wi-fi access for the whole duration of the course.

    Privacy Notice

    The personal information you have provided will be processed in compliance with the EUI Privacy Statement for conferences. For general queries: fbf@eui.eu


    General information on local transport

    From Florence airport:

    Florence airport is located 8 km from the city centre, approximately 30 minutes by taxi or bus. Taxis can be found outside the arrivals terminal; no reservation is needed. A taxi ride from the airport costs about €20 and takes approximately 25/30 minutes.

    A tramway (line T2) connects the airport to the city centre. Trains leave from the airport terminal and take 20 minutes to the main railway station. One-way tickets can be bought from vending machines for €1.50.

    The airport is also connected to the main railway station in Florence by a shuttle bus (‘Vola in bus’) that leaves every 30 minutes (on the hour and on the half-hour) and takes 25 minutes. Tickets are available on board for €6.00.

    From the central railway station:

    Take bus n. 7 at the bus stop Stazione Nazionale in the direction “Fiesole Piazza Mino”, get off at the stop ‘San Domenico 01’. For bus routes and timetables consult the official timetable.

    Bus tickets are sold outside the railway station, at ATAF ticket kiosks and vending machines, tobacconists (tabacchi), newspaper kiosks (edicole), and most cafes (bar). They must be bought before boarding and stamped using the machine on the bus. A ticket costs €1.50 and it is valid for 90 minutes. Bus tickets can be purchased also on board (€ 2.50), but the driver is not obliged to give change.

    Private car

    From the A1 Milano-Napoli (Autostrada del Sole), take the Firenze Sud exit and follow directions to the city centre/Stadio. Follow the directions to the stadium (Stadio), then for Fiesole. San Domenico is on the main road to Fiesole.

    The EUI has several free parking areas available all over the Campus.

  • Course material

    Registered participants can access the course material using the password provided by the FBF secretariat.