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Accurately assessing the sustainability of debt trajectories is crucial to map sovereign vulnerabilities, to ensure financial stability and to reduce decision-makers’ uncertainty. This is valid in normal times – as part of fiscal surveillance exercises that can lead to possible early warning signals – but becomes even more relevant in crisis times – as part of the assessment that precedes the provision of financial support (such as via the Outright Monetary Transactions programme for example). Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) is thus subject to the classic mix of rules and discretion.

In this online seminar, held in cooperation with CEPS, Cinzia Alcidi (Senior Research Fellow and Head of Economic Policy Unit) and Daniel Gros (Director) will guide us through what constitutes state-of-the-art DSA. For this, they will elaborate on the approaches of both the International Monetary Fund and of the European Commission which they find to be complementary rather than alternative in nature. Alcidi and Gros’ presentation will include a deep-dive into two recent illustrative cases: Greece and Italy and will provide recommendations on the way forward.

Seminar organised in cooperation with the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

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Speakers

Cinzia Alcidi, Senior Research Fellow and Head of Economic Policy Unit at CEPS

Cinzia Alcidi is Head of the Economic Policy Unit at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels and LUISS- School of European Political Economy- research fellow. Prior to joining CEPS, she worked at International Labour Office in Geneva and she taught International Economics at University of Perugia (Italy). Her research activity includes international economics, macroeconomics, central banking and EU governance. Since 2015 she is the coordinator of CEPS Academy Activities. She has experience in coordinating research projects and networks. She has published extensively on the economics and governance of the Euro area crisis and participates regularly in international conferences. She holds a Ph.D. degree in International Economics from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva (Switzerland).

 

Daniel Gros, Director, CEPS

Daniel Gros is the Director of the think tank Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), which he joined first in 1986-1988 and then again in 1990. He has worked International Monetary Fund from 1983 to 1986, and served as economic advisor to the Directorate General II of the European Commission from 1988–1990, co-authoring the study targeted to design the Euro, the European Parliament from 1998-2005, as well as several government members, including the Prime minister and the Finance minister of France. He has also taught at the College of Europe in Natolin and numerous other universities throughout Europe. His current research primarily focuses on EU economic policy, specifically on the impact of the euro on capital and labour markets, as well as on the international role of the euro, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. He also monitors the transition towards market economies and the process of enlargement of the European Union towards the east.

 

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References

• Debt Sustainability Analysis: State of the Art by Cinzia Alcidi and Daniel Gros, CEPS. Study requested by the ECON Committee of the European Parliament, Economic Governance Support Unit Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union – November 2018 (Direct access to text)
• Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support, Giancarlo Corsetti, Aitor Erce and Timothy Uy, CEPR DP 13292, November 2018
• Debt Seniority and Sovereign Debt Crises, Anil Ari , Giancarlo Corsetti , Luca Dedola, IMF Working Paper No. 18/104, May 2018
• Official Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis, Giancarlo Corsetti Aitor Erce and Timothy Uy, CEPR DP 12228, September 2017,(Download the dataset)

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Technical disclaimer

The online seminar will take place on the Adobe Connect platform. You can access the seminars from personal computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones.
You are strongly encouraged to read the technical requirements before registering for the online seminar.
To ensure an optimal experience in terms of connection speed and video quality, we suggest to attend the seminar via a device connected to a stable network connection, avoiding if possible shared wi-fi or mobile connections.

Download the presentation by Dominique Laboureix

Download the presentation by Mike Hesketh

 

This online seminar will focus on the tension between liquidity and resolution. By definition, once a resolution scheme is adopted, a recapitalised bank that has absorbed losses will be solvent and should have better access to funding. However, liquidity stress is expected at the point of resolution. Given that analysts and creditors will likely require time to re-assess the financial position of the resolved bank, the return to market funding will be a slightly longer process.

Resolution authorities have a key role to play to restore market confidence and access to private market funding in case of resolution. Enhancing banks capabilities to restore liquidity at the point of resolution represents a crucial task in resolution planning activities. In some cases, a temporary public funding may be necessary when an immediate return to the market is not fully possible. In that regard, the central banks and the Single Resolution Fund would be instrumental for the success of a resolution action.

 

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Moderator

Patrick Honohan (Honorary Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin; Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Patrick Honohan was Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank from September 2009 to November 2015. He is an honorary professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin and a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC. Previously he spent twelve years on the staff of the World Bank where he was a Senior Advisor on financial sector issues. During the 1990s he was a Research Professor at Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute. In the 1980s he was Economic Advisor to the Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Garret FitzGerald. He also spent earlier spells at the Central Bank of Ireland and at the International Monetary Fund. A graduate of University College Dublin, he received his PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics in 1978. He has taught economics at the London School of Economics, at University College Dublin and as a visitor to the University of California San Diego and the Australian National University as well as at Trinity College Dublin. He was elected a member of the Royal Irish Academy in 2002.

 

Speaker

Dominique Laboureix (Director of Resolution Planning and Decisions and Member, Single Resolution Board)

Dominique Laboureix as Member of the Board is more particularly in charge of resolution planning and preparations of decisions about banking groups coming from 6 Member States of the Banking Union and 3 GSIBs. He is involved in several policy issues and chairs the Resolution Committee of the European Banking Authority. Before 2015, he was Deputy Director General in charge of the Directorate of Resolution within the ACPR (Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution, France) and was notably responsible for the French banking institutions’ resolution planning. He has also been involved in several international committees, in particular with the Financial Stability Board and the European Banking Authority. From 2011 to 2013, he was Director of the Finance and Management Control Directorate within the French Central Bank. Previously, between 2007 and 2011, he had been Director of the Research and Policy Directorate of the ACPR, benefiting from over 10 years’ experience of banking supervision with the Off-Site Directorate of the prudential authority. Mr Laboureix is a graduate of the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris and has a masters in commercial law from Paris II University.

 

Commentator

Michael Hesketh (Principal Banking Expert, European Stability Mechanism)

Mike Hesketh joined the Banking Team of the European Stability Mechanism in 2013 and is currently deputy mission chief for Greece and head of the Greek financial sector team. Prior to joining the Greek programme in early 2015, Mike worked on the Cypriot programme and on operationalisation of the ESM mandate for direct bank recapitalisation. Before the ESM, hespent over twenty years with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in different roles including portfolio and risk management, corporate recovery and financial institutions. Mike was on the board of a number of banks and focused on active management of distressed or problematic equity investments.    

 

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Technical disclaimer

The online seminar will take place on the Adobe Connect platform. You can access the seminars from personal computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones.
You are strongly encouraged to read the technical requirements before registering for the online seminar.
To ensure an optimal experience in terms of connection speed and video quality, we suggest to attend the seminar via a device connected to a stable network connection, avoiding if possible shared wi-fi or mobile connections.

Download the presentation by Mario Quagliariello

Download the presentation by Klaus Düllmann

 

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Stress testing – understood as a tool for assessing banks’ resilience to an extreme but plausible adverse scenario – is a crucial part of banking supervisors' toolbox.

In this online seminar, Mario Quagliariello (Director of the Economic Analysis and Statistics Department, European Banking Authority) and Klaus Düllmann (Head of SSM Risk Analysis Division, European Central Bank) will:

1. guide you through the rationale and objectives of the European Union wide stress test simulation exercise;
2. highlight its governance and underline its key features;
3. lastly, our speakers will also showcase results and share their lessons learned from the most recent EU stress testing exercise.

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Speaker

Mario Quagliariello (Director of the Economic Analysis and Statistics Department, European Banking Authority.)

Mario Quagliariello is the Director of the Economic Analysis and Statistics Department at the European Banking Authority. The Department is in charge of the analysis of risks in the EU banking sector and stress testing. The Department also holds responsibility for the statistical tasks carried out by the EBA and runs the impact assessments of regulatory measures. He previously served as Head of the Risk Analysis Unit at the EBA and as a Senior Economist at Banca d’Italia. Mario has published articles in international journals and edited the volume Stress Testing the Banking System: Methodologies and Applications, published by the Cambridge University Press. For Riskbooks, he co-edited the volume Basel III and Beyond and edited Europe’s New Supervisory Toolkit: Data, Benchmarking and Stress Testing for Banks and their Regulators. He holds a BA in economics with honours from the University “La Sapienza” in Rome and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of York.

         

 

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Technical disclaimer

The online seminar will take place on the Adobe Connect platform. You can access the seminars from personal computers, laptops, tablets and smartphones.
You are strongly encouraged to read the technical requirements before registering for the online seminar.
To ensure an optimal experience in terms of connection speed and video quality, we suggest to attend the seminar via a device connected to a stable network connection, avoiding if possible shared wi-fi or mobile connections.

  The Florence School of Banking and Finance, Fondazione CESIFIN Alberto Predieri and Fondazione CR Firenze are organising a high-level lecture by Elke König, Chair of the Single Resolution Board.  

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In her lecture, Dr. Konig will briefly introduce the EU framework for resolution, then explain how the SRB conceives and works (with the banks under its remit) on resolvability, and finally give an assessment on the state of play and next steps. More in details, the lecture will cover:

• the EU regulatory framework and the SRB policy which constitute the basis for the work by the SRB and the banks on resolvability;
• a more detailed description of the priority areas to be addressed by banks to achieve resolvability;
• some insights into the SRB work on these areas; an assessment of the progress made so far.

 

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Speaker

Elke König Chair of the Single Resolution Board Dr Elke König is Chair of the SRB, being responsible for the management of the organisation, the work of the Board, the budget, all staff, and the Executive and Plenary sessions of the Board. The General Counsel, the Policy Coordination and International Relations Unit, the Communications office and the Internal Audit function report directly to her. She was President of the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) from 2012 until 2015. After qualifying in business administration and obtaining a doctorate, Dr König spent many years working for companies in the financial and insurance sector. From 1980 to 1990, she worked for KPMG Deutsche Treuhandgesellschaft in Cologne, auditing and advising insurance undertakings, from 1986 as a holder of a special statutory authority (Prokuristin) and from 1988 as a director and partner. From 1990 to 2002, Dr König was a member of the senior management of the Munich Re Group (Head of Accounting); she then moved to Hannover Rückversicherung AG as Chief Financial Officer. From 2010 to the end of 2011, Dr König was a member of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in London. Dr König was also a representative of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism.  

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Programme

• 16:00 Registration and welcome coffee
• 16:35 Opening remarks
  • Lorenzo Stanghellini (Professor of Business Law, University of Florence)
• 16:45 Lecture
  • Elke König (Chair, Single Resolution Board)
• 17:30 Interventions by discussants
  • Elena Carletti (Scientific Director, Florence School of Banking and Finance)
  • Lorenzo Gai (Professor of Economics, University of Florence)
• 17:50 Questions and answers with the public
  • Moderated by Federico Fubini (Corriere della Sera)
  • Panelists: Elke König, Elena Carletti, Lorenzo Gai
• 18:35 Closing remarks
  • Renaud Dehousse (President, European University Institute)
• 18:45 Cocktail for all participants
• 19:30 Restricted dinner for speakers and selected guests (upon invitation)

The event will be in English with simultaneous translation to Italian.  

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EVENT CO-ORGANISED WITH

Fondazione CESIFIN Alberto Predieri

Fondazione CR Firenze