Credit and the Macroeconomy: Leverage Cycles, Asset Prices and Crisis
This course will consider the role of leverage and asset prices for macroeconomic outcomes. It will first discuss stylized facts about leverage cycles, credit growth, interest rates and asset prices over the long-run, before moving on to studying financial crises.
In particular, it will focus on how different economic indicators perform in crisis prediction models, and ask what role bank capital ratio and liquidity ratios play for financial stability.
In the last part of the course the effectiveness of macro-prudential and monetary policy in taming credit cycles will be discussed, followed by an assessment of how such policies affect the real economy.
- Financial cycles and the economy;
- Interest rates and returns on capital;
- Financial crisis prediction: tools and accuracy;
- Bank capital and financial stability;
- Debt overhang and recovery from crises;
- Managing credit booms: macroprudential vs. monetary policy
How the course will work
Total course length: between 12 and 15 hours.
The second and the third part of the course will be “hands-on” in the sense that we will estimate crisis prediction models, and study the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies using the local projection method. Attendants are asked to bring a laptop that has the software STATA installed.
A certificate of attendance will be provided to all participants after the course.
Meet the instructor
Moritz Schularick is Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Bonn and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and the CESifo Research Network. In 2015-16, he held the Alfred-Grosser-Chair at SciencesPo in Paris. Previously, he taught at the Free University of Berlin and was a visiting professor at New York University and the University of Cambridge. Working at the intersection of macroeconomics, international economics and economic history, his research has been published in several journals, among others the American Economic Review and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He is a Research Fellow of CEPR and CESifo, a Schumpeter-Fellow of VolkswagenStiftung and an alumnus of the German Young Academy.
Degree in Economics; knowledge of empirical techniques; basic knowledge of STATA.
Participants should bring their own laptops with the STATA software installed.
1750€ – Public Authorities (e.g. National Competent Authorities, Central Banks) and European Institutions*
2250€ – Private Sector
1000€ – Research assistants or Associate Professors
850€ – Students (with certificate of studies)
The course fee covers coffee and lunch breaks. Travel and hotel costs are not included.
* In case of registration of 3 participants from the same public body, the course fee is waived for one of them. To benefit from the deal:
- the names of the 3 participants have to be communicated to firstname.lastname@example.org before registering
- the names of other registered people from the same institution cannot be communicated. It is upon your responsibility to get in touch with your HR division
- a single debit note will be issued for the 3 participants followed by one payment
- In case a course is cancelled, registered participants will receive the full refund.
- In case a course is moved to another date, registered participants may request a voucher to attend another FBF course.
- Registered participants who cancel their participation will receive a voucher to attend another FBF course.
For more details, please contact email@example.com
On arrival, participants will be provided with temporary wi-fi access for the whole duration of the course.
Registered participants can access the course material using the password provided by the FBF secretariat.