Credit and the Macroeconomy: Leverage Cycles, Asset Prices and Crisis
Registrations open in Autumn 2018
This course will consider the role of leverage and asset prices for macroeconomic outcomes. It will first discuss stylized facts about leverage cycles, credit growth, interest rates and asset prices over the long-run, before moving on to studying financial crises.
In particular, it will focus on how different economic indicators perform in crisis prediction models, and ask what role bank capital ratio and liquidity ratios play for financial stability.
In the last part of the course the effectiveness of macro-prudential and monetary policy in taming credit cycles will be discussed, followed by an assessment of how such policies affect the real economy.
- Financial cycles and the economy;
- Interest rates and returns on capital;
- Financial crisis prediction: tools and accuracy;
- Bank capital and financial stability;
- Debt overhang and recovery from crises;
- Managing credit booms: macroprudential vs. monetary policy
How the course will work
Total course length: 15 hours.
The last part of the course will consist of a “hands-on” exercise, during which participants use STATA to estimate crisis prediction models, and to study the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies using the local projection method.
A certificate of attendance will be provided to all participants after the course.
Meet the instructor
Moritz Schularick is Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Bonn and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London and the CESifo Research Network. In 2015-16, he held the Alfred-Grosser-Chair at SciencesPo in Paris. Previously, he taught at the Free University of Berlin and was a visiting professor at New York University and the University of Cambridge. Working at the intersection of macroeconomics, international economics and economic history, his research has been published in several journals, among others the American Economic Review and the Journal of Monetary Economics. He is a Research Fellow of CEPR and CESifo, a Schumpeter-Fellow of VolkswagenStiftung and an alumnus of the German Young Academy.
Degree in Economics. Knowledge of empirical techniques and basic knowledge of STATA are required to follow the course
Participant are required to bring their own laptops with STATA installed.
Information on course fees will be published in Autumn 2018.
On arrival, participants will be provided with temporary wi-fi access for the whole duration of the course.